Domestic Economic Data Weakness Period Before Or After Continuation Of The Shock

This cycle refers to first and then the end of the line.

On Friday, the index fell off, and the main contract IF1502 finally closed at 3344.6 points, down 55.2 points, or 1.62%.

Analysts believe that, subject to domestic economic data is weak, next week, the issue of new shares, pre holiday funds cautious and other factors perturbed, the index short-term upward space is not large, or continue to wide shocks.

Judging from the trend of stock index futures, the cycle is still showing consolidation trend, and the weekly line has been closed for second consecutive weeks, with a total decrease of 2.47%.

On Wednesday, when the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates, Thursday's index advanced higher and lower, failing to break through the upside and continue to adjust the situation.

On Friday, the index continued to seek the bottom. With the departure of the short end, the futures index rebounded.

"This cycle was slightly rebounded in the first half of the week, but the pressure at the top was relatively large, and no effective breakthrough was achieved. After the central bank announced its approval on Wednesday, the index moved higher and lower on the next day, and eventually fell to its recent low point on Friday, forming a short cut in short term."

Wang Yiming, a medium-term analyst in Shanghai, said.

From the current premium point of view, this cycle refers to the gradual narrowing of the price difference. On Monday and Tuesday, the index futures rose 44, 18 points, and Wednesday Thursday index showed a discount trend. As of the closing of the IF1502, the premium between the IF1502 contract and the spot Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock index was 32.18.

This week, the empty side took the initiative.

Guotai Junan analyst Hu Jianglai analysis, the first 20 members of the first 23 thousand and 700 members of the warehouse held 23 thousand and 700 positions, an increase of 1 thousand and 900 hands, Tuesday's net positions continued to increase 1300 hands, the market

Continue to ferment, strong risk appetite.

On Wednesday, the market fell sharply and the net position dropped to 2800.

On Thursday, the market returned to a high point, and the desire for short entry increased again.

As of Friday

The CICC rankings showed that the first 20 seats in the IF1502 contract were reduced from 6779 to 70 thousand, and the first 20 empty seats were reduced from 5952 to 80 thousand and 800.

On the specific seats, Yongan futures reduced more than 733 single hand; Haitong futures holdings of more than one single 844 hands, the reduction of empty single 489 hands; Guotai Junan Futures reduction of empty single 1203 hands.

Wang Yiming said that because of the recent depreciation of the RMB, the flow of domestic capital and the pressure of foreign exchange reserves, the central bank has implemented a quasi reduction policy.

At the same time, a series of policies have been promulgated to regulate the two market. Therefore, this reduction has failed to bring incremental capital or confidence to the market, and it is hard to get any good news before the Spring Festival.

Technically, the pressure on the index has failed many times, and the average is short. The index fell below the recent low on Friday, and the subsequent adjustment is likely to continue.

Shenyang Wanguo futures analyst Wang Yang believes that 24 new shares will be purchased next week, with 17 new shares on Tuesday, and the pressure on funds will be greatly reduced after Tuesday.

In addition, the central bank put in 90 billion yuan this week through counter repurchase.

At the beginning of next week, the tension will be eased, and the stock index is expected to stabilize. However, due to the weak economic data, there is little room for the stock index to go up.

From the perspective of medium and long term asset allocation, stock market still has the advantage of relative return, the possibility of large capital outflow is low, and the stock index downlink space is not large.

Short term stock index will continue the pattern of broad shocks.