The Truth Behind The Short-Term Improvement: There Is Still A "Zigzag" Pressure On Foreign Trade.

Following the reversal of the buyers and export turnover of spring fair in May this year, the autumn fair "rebounded".

And last year's autumn trade fair, export turnover fell by 7.4%.

This situation is basically echoed with the trend of foreign trade import and export this year.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's foreign trade value decreased by 1.9% compared with the same period last year, but the growth rate of imports and exports, imports and exports in the third quarter is increasing.

The 120th China Import and Export Fair is called the "Canton Fair" closed.

The reporter was informed that the number of overseas purchasers in the Canton Fair has resumed growth and turnover has shown a preliminary stabilization.

Specifically, the procurement business to 185 thousand and 700 people, the export turnover of 187 billion 301 million yuan, two compared to the same period last year, the Autumn Fair increased by 4.6% and 3.2% respectively.

This situation is basically echoed with the trend of foreign trade import and export this year.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed that in the second half of this year, especially in 7 and August, the key index of some foreign trade imports and exports gradually shifted to the right place, indicating that the situation of foreign trade is slowly improving.

However, the order structure of the Guangzhou trade fair still shows a hidden worry: the proportion of short and medium bills is still high, the proportion of short and medium accounts in less than 6 months is 81.6%, while the long list ratio is still low, only 18.4%.

Xu Bing, deputy director of the China Foreign Trade Center, told reporters that the proportion of short and medium bills is still high, reflecting that the international market is not too stable, and buyers' grasp of potential demand is conservative.

Bai Ming further analyzed that the export volume of the Canton Fair increased slightly, behind the systematic positive factors, and the most direct one was the stimulus of the RMB exchange rate. However, after the short-term improvement, there was still a "zigzag" trend in foreign trade.

Data show that this

The procurement business reports to 185 thousand and 700 people, an increase of 4.6% compared with the autumn trade fair in 2015, and a total turnover of 187 billion 301 million yuan RMB equivalent to 27 billion 890 million US dollars, an increase of 3.2% over the same period last year.

Buyers, Asia, Europe and the Americas remain the main force, accounting for 56.42%, 19.04% and 14.11% respectively, but the fastest growth rate in Europe and the United States is 6.53% and 10.91% respectively, while Asia has increased by only 4.22%.

In terms of export pactions, the EU, BRIC and the US remain the top three, up 5.6%, 11.5% and 14.7%, respectively, representing 25.5%, 13.6% and 13.3% of the total volume of exports respectively.

On the other hand, the number of purchasing reports to the 81 thousand and 600 countries along the "one belt and one road" has increased by 7.93%, accounting for 44% of the total, and the turnover of exports has increased by 1.5%, accounting for 29.6%.

Chen Wanling, director of the international economic and Trade Research Center of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, analyzed the twenty-first Century economic report reporter. From the macro level, the two traditional legs of the European and American markets and emerging markets play a key role at the same time.

European and American countries, as the "main force", have gradually weakened with the news of Britain's withdrawal from Europe and the US interest rate hike, and market confidence has picked up.

Xu Bing said that combining the third quarter import and export "positive", as well as the current Canton Fair data and exhibitors generally reflect the harvest is better than expected, verified the bottom of China's foreign trade import and export stabilization phenomenon began to appear judgment.

"The export growth of the Canton Fair is behind a series of systematic positive factors."

Bai Ming further analyzed the external environment, although the international market is still in the doldrums, but it is not the worst time.

Secondly, in recent years, policies and measures to curb the decline of foreign trade have been introduced at the national level, which has laid the foundation for this growth.

Bai Ming also pointed out that, based on the foregoing, the recent Renminbi

It also creates positive benefits and directly stimulates the export growth of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.

He said that although the depreciation of the renminbi also created a "price reduction" condition for purchasers, it also brought certain redistribution effect.

That is to say, although there is a game between buyers and enterprises, it eventually leads to export growth.

However, experts interviewed by reporters generally agreed that, regardless of the past three quarters of the country's foreign trade situation, or this Canton Fair, the trend of foreign trade stabilization is not strong, and the fourth quarter and next year's foreign trade situation is still grim.

Bai Ming believes that the current foreign trade situation is improving in the short term, but there is still a "zigzag trend" pressure.

The real improvement of the foreign trade situation requires "heaven, earth, and people".

"Sky time" depends on when the international market will hit bottom rebound; "geographical advantage" is that the product really improves quality and efficiency, and the industrial competitiveness has been fundamentally improved; "harmony" is a good policy function.

In fact, even from this Canton Fair, there are still worries behind the double growth of buyers and turnover.

The reporter learned that in the paction order, the proportion of short and medium bills is still high, and the proportion of short and medium accounts within 6 months is 81.6%.

By contrast, the proportion of long bills is still low, only 18.4%.

"Most of the past orders were longer than half a year, but now they are mostly short and medium bills."

Xu Bing analysis shows that the international market is not too stable, and buyers' grasp of potential demand is conservative.

Some analysts also pointed out that there is a high demand for short and medium staple purchases, and there are also buyers' consideration of exchange rate.

Xu Bing said that China's foreign trade has bid farewell to the era of rapid development which was supported by scale and cost. The trend of foreign trade development in the future will be driven by innovation, with brand, quality and service as new development advantages.

In fact, this trend can also be observed from this Canton Fair.

Data show that the brand exhibition area total turnover of 9 billion 510 million U.S. dollars, accounting for 34.1% of the total turnover, an increase of 10.5% over the same period, which is far higher than the overall turnover growth.

Xu Bing said that compared with the previous sessions, the buyers of this Canton Fair reduced their price sensitivity, but were more concerned about the quality and service of the products.

Therefore, the Canton Fair also attaches importance to guiding enterprises to strengthen research and development, cultivate brands, build marketing networks, and continuously promote the pformation and structure of foreign trade development.

To promote enterprises to achieve more export pactions.

Reporters at the Canton Fair interview also found that speeding up product R & D innovation and increasing brand building has become a common strategy for many domestic export enterprises, especially manufacturing enterprises, to cope with the current foreign trade situation.

According to Bai Ming analysis, the future development of foreign trade needs to start with accelerating the landing of the policy and the pformation and upgrading of the industry. The latter is the foundation of foreign trade, lies in innovating products and services, and further enhancing its competitiveness and value-added products, which is also a way of thinking from the perspective of supply side.

However, we must also focus on the demand side approach and seek to further open up overseas markets.

In November 2nd, the Ministry of Commerce released the report on China's foreign trade situation in autumn 2016. It is predicted that the situation facing China's foreign trade development in 2017 is still grim and complicated, but it is also in the critical stage of accelerating structural adjustment and changing the old and new kinetic energy continuously.

According to the report, China's foreign trade accounted for the global market share in 2017, which is expected to remain basically stable. The import and export status of the goods will continue to be consolidated, the quality and efficiency will continue to improve, and the trade structure will continue to be optimized.