Polyester And Downstream Industry Chain Research: TA Market Focus On Production And Sales And New Orders

Core points of the survey:

1. the resumption of downstream factories, Haining warp knitting, Huzhou Changxin plus bombs, Taicang plus bombs are relatively normal, usually eight start at the beginning of the month, fifteen workers arrive in the first month, workers wages rise slightly, the current machines are basically open to 90% or full.

Changshu reed is slow, and now it starts 5-6.

2. the amount of raw materials for weaving and weaving raw materials is up to mid March. Most of Haining warp knitted fabrics are from March 10th to mid March. Speculative stocks are not high. In Huzhou and Changxin, the POY inventory is close to half a month. The raw material inventory of Shengze loom is near 20 days. The raw material inventory of Taicang is up to 3 months. The raw material inventory of Changshu can be used in the middle of 3 months, but Changshu has a relatively high volume of speculative production (above 4).

3. order situation, visit the bomb weaving factory consistent conclusion is that pre orders are better, most factory orders can be discharged into mid 3, at present, enterprises have orders, but mainly before the order.

Due to the rapid expansion of the 17-18 years of weaving and weaving, the factory processing profit is not high, and the downstream factories are not making a large amount of speculative stocking before the festival. Most of the raw material stockings take into account the low pre harvest silk price and the actual orders of factories. The downstream weaving enterprises are generally stocked to the middle of 3.

The new orders after the holiday are not clear at the moment, and the mentality of buying and selling in the lower reaches is generally low. The price of silk is more than just needed in the process of reducing prices, and factories generally expect the first batch of replenishment cycles after the holidays in March or mid March.

4. the factory profit situation, the current downstream bomb and weaving all have profit, but the profit is general, the raw material low price factory has the real order demand, will increase the raw material stock.

But in the 16-17 year, when the profits of enterprises are better, the demand for downstream speculative stocking is higher.

5. industry view of PTA, this visit whether polyester factories or downstream weaving enterprises, is expected to be relatively optimistic about the expected PTA market in the future. The main consideration is that the cost side PX is relatively high in 4-5 months. The HL aromatics link is not very likely to be formally put into production in the first half of the year.

Supply side Shengda may drive in the first half of the year, but due to the PX supply problem of raw materials, the supply is incremented or not. The demand side for 3-5 months is the traditional demand season. The polyester end has been postponed this year, but it has been gradually resuming the recovery stage. The increment of downstream weaving 18 years is larger. Some factories started to work late because of the labor factor, but the current bullets and looms have basically opened to 8-9. Some machines are full, and the demand for raw material replenishment in the downstream peak season is still large.

Although it is expected to be optimistic, whether the node started in the market is the key to the problem in the early March or in mid March, we should continue to pay attention to polyester production and downstream orders in the near future.

6. industry view of ethylene glycol market, short term ethylene glycol dropped little space, the main reason is that the absolute price is low, external ethylene mining /MTO/ coal part of the device has been in deficit, coal processing technology to the factory cost line in 5200-5300 (including freight), may be out of the national strategy or coincidence factor coal device has not obviously stopped work, but the factory profit is already poor, the current port inventory is high, but the library sales ratio is not high, the future will enter the demand season, the demand is not bad.

First, research background

After entering the February, with the polyester inspection and downloading, PTA entered the seasonal storage stage. The 3-5 month is the traditional PTA demand season in the first half of the year. The market expects PTA supply and demand to become more and more tight with the downstream demand, but after the festival, the polyester load increases slowly, and production and marketing remain low.

On the 26-28 th of February, our company visited two teams in Haining, Huzhou, Jiangyin, Shengze, Changshu, Taicang and other places for polyester and weaving enterprises to conduct research on downstream reprocessing, raw material stocking and order.

Two. Core points of research

1. the resumption of downstream factories, Haining warp knitting, Huzhou Changxin plus bombs, Taicang plus bombs are relatively normal, usually eight start at the beginning of the month, fifteen workers arrive in the first month, workers wages rise slightly, the current machines are basically open to 90% or full.

Changshu reed is slow, and now it starts 5-6.

2. the amount of raw materials for weaving and weaving raw materials is up to mid March. Most of Haining warp knitted fabrics are from March 10th to mid March. Speculative stocks are not high. In Huzhou and Changxin, the POY inventory is close to half a month. The raw material inventory of Shengze loom is near 20 days. The raw material inventory of Taicang is up to 3 months. The raw material inventory of Changshu can be used in the middle of 3 months, but Changshu has a relatively high volume of speculative production (above 4).

3. order situation, visit the bomb weaving factory consistent conclusion is that pre orders are better, most factory orders can be discharged into mid 3, at present, enterprises have orders, but mainly before the order.

Due to the rapid expansion of the 17-18 years of weaving and weaving, the factory processing profit is not high, and the downstream factories are not making a large amount of speculative stocking before the festival. Most of the raw material stockings take into account the low pre harvest silk price and the actual orders of factories. The downstream weaving enterprises are generally stocked to the middle of 3.

The new orders after the holiday are not clear at the moment, and the mentality of buying and selling in the lower reaches is generally low. The price of silk is more than just needed in the process of reducing prices, and factories generally expect the first batch of replenishment cycles after the holidays in March or mid March.

4. the factory profit situation, the current downstream bomb and weaving all have profit, but the profit is general, the raw material low price factory has the real order demand, will increase the raw material stock.

But in the 16-17 year, when the profits of enterprises are better, the demand for downstream speculative stocking is higher.

In the first half of the year, the cost of PTA is mainly considered in the 4-5 months, and the current HL aromatics link is not very likely to be formally put into production in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, under the tight expectation of PX, the cost side support is strong. The supply side Shengda may drive in the first half of the year. However, the supply of raw materials is not increasing or not. The demand side is 3-5 months, which is the traditional demand season. This year, the polyester end has been postponed, but it has been gradually resuming and recovering. The increment of the downstream weaving has been larger than that of the 18 years. Some factories started to work late as compared with the previous years (the lunar calendar), but the current looms and looms have basically been opened to 8-9, some machines are full, and the demand for raw material replenishment in the downstream peak season is still large. 5. industry view of PTA, this visit whether polyester factories or downstream weaving enterprises, is expected to be relatively optimistic about the future PTA market expectations.

Although it is expected to be optimistic, whether the node launched in the market is the key to the problem in the early March or in mid March, we should continue to pay attention to polyester production and downstream orders in the near future.

6. industry view of ethylene glycol market, short term ethylene glycol dropped little space, the main reason is that the absolute price is low, external ethylene mining /MTO/ coal part of the device has been in deficit, coal processing technology to the factory cost line in 5200-5300 (including freight), may be out of the national strategy or coincidence factor coal device has not obviously stopped work, but the factory profit is already poor, the current port inventory is high, but the library sales ratio is not high, the future will enter the demand season, the demand is not bad.

Three, research visits record

Haining warp knitting:

There are about more than 4000 machines in warp knitting machine in Haining area. One machine consumes about 1 tons of polyester every day, with an average of 10 warp knitting machines in one enterprise.

1. the resumption of Haining's warp knitting enterprises has returned to normal, and now it is relatively normal. Now it starts 9 percent, which is better than last year. There are 3 main reasons: 1) this year, the workers are good at recruiting, 60-70% local people, wages have not risen significantly (up 30% last year), 2), the environmental protection effect is small, and the dyeing factories are running normally. 3) in January this year, the orders were over expected, and January orders were received from March to April.

2. the raw material stock of Haining warp knitting enterprise is mostly prepared from March 10th to the middle of March, and about 10% is ready for the end of March, and 5% is ready for early April.

The main reason for the relatively high stock of raw materials is that the order volume can be achieved between March and April.

Compared with 16-17 years, raw materials are not stocked before the Spring Festival this year. In 1 months or so, raw materials can be stocked for 2 months in 16-17 years. The reason for the high stocking of raw materials is that the market is good and the profits of enterprises are good. There will be a part of speculative stocking. Now the raw materials are ready for stock for only one month, and the real demand for orders is 1 months after the Spring Festival.

3. the finished product inventory of warp knitting is not high. In about 10 days, there are physical constraints. Warp knitting is a heavy asset. There is not enough space in the factory and warehouse, and businesses are mostly sold on credit. Excessive inventory also takes up cash flow.

4. the new order situation after the year of warp knitting will not be clear until mid March. It needs continuous tracking, but usually the 3-5 month is the traditional peak season in the first half of the year, and the demand is not expected to be too bad.

A weaving factory in Huzhou:

The company has added 58 bombs, and equipped with circular knitting machines, warp knitting machines, dyeing machines and so on.

The profit of the dyeing plant and the circular machine is relatively good, mainly due to the fact that the dyeing plant has been shut down by environmental protection.

The company mainly produces high end products, grey cloth 60-70% export.

1., when the bomb resumed, there was no problem in recruiting workers this year. The company started eight at the beginning of the month, and the personnel were basically in place (more workers in the field, more local workers in the textile industry, and no problem this year). The current situation of the bomb start is around 90%.

2. raw materials POY for more than half a month, DTY inventory for 1 months, the overall inventory pressure is not large.

3. the key to relative optimism in the future is the starting point of market timing, in early March or mid 3.

A bomb factory in Changxin:

28 rounds of ammunition, the company adopts differentiated production mode to provide personalized service for customers, and 28 machines can produce more than 200 products.

1. the basic situation of Changxin, Huzhou: the demonstration counties with bomb and water spray, the current county has about 1200-1500 of the ammo and 80 thousand of the water.

The whole of Changxin is greatly influenced by environmental protection.

A large number of loom factories have been pferred to northern Siyang and Shuyang, and the number of looms and looms has been doubled.

2. resumption of work: the first eight starts, the first month fifteen staff arrived, now started full.

The wages of workers are higher than the average wage by 10-15%, and 100% of the workers are in uniform.

3. inventory situation: raw materials POY for half a month, finished DTY inventory for one week, inventory is very low, sales are good.

4. order status: the order was good before the year, but it was restricted by the capital occupation and warehouse space. There was not a large number of orders. After that, the orders were always received, and some popular products were ordered for 2 weeks.

5. more optimistic about the future market, the market may start in March, the main reason is that 18 years of new addition and weaving quantity is very large, the machine normally opened, the demand for raw materials is relatively large.

A PET bottle business:

1. order status: orders were received before March, and orders were received after April.

There is a light and busy season. The demand usually starts in March, mainly due to weather reasons. The demand for orders started later this year, but this year is better than last year.

The factory now exceeds 100% load and the cash flow is OK.

2. raw material stock situation: PTA factory stocking stock for 11 days, MEG plant 8-9 days (factory glycol tank capacity 20 thousand tons, storage tank full can put 20 days)

3. the factory is relatively optimistic about the future expectations. The factory thinks that the main demand in the future will increase in foreign countries, and the export orders will start in October, and the proportion of factory exports will be 48-49% in 18 years. It is expected that the devices that will be stopped abroad will not be restarted in the last few years (the foreign installations are relatively old, even though the cost of restarting production is higher than that of the domestic market, which may be occupied by the domestic market), while the demand for carbonic acid and water bottles in foreign countries is increasing greatly.