The Global Epidemic Continues To Spread. The 43 Countries Declared A State Of Emergency. Foreign Enterprises Need To Be Cautious In Exporting.

With the development of the epidemic, since the Italy government declared a 6 month emergency in January 31st, as of March 19th, 43 countries around the world declared a state of emergency in order to cope with the outbreak of new crown pneumonia. France and South Korea were "wartime states" and "war states" respectively.

For friends of the aviation and trade logistics industry, the following messages can be said to be worse than ever. The two US docks were closed because of the epidemic, Australia and India ports announced the latest quarantine measures, Vietnam and Kampuchea closed the ports, and the European countries in the epicenter of the epicentre had blocked the land transportation seriously. All of these resulted in great transit of goods. Delays and impacts.

Houston port announced on its official website that its two container terminals found employees diagnosed with new crown pneumonia would be temporarily closed.

The port authority of Houston said that its staff members were positive in detecting COVID-19 coronavirus in two container terminals of Barbours Cut and Bayport. In view of the above information, a large number of investigations were carried out. Two container terminals were temporarily closed due to careful consideration. The waterway of Houston port was open and more than 200 private terminals were still operating normally.

It is understood that Barbours Cut is one of the main container terminals in the Gulf of Mexico, and has 6 berths. The port is being partially reconstructed, and the port handling capacity is expected to increase from 1 million 200 thousand TEU to 2 million TEU after the completion of the plan. Bayport has 7 berths, and is considered to be the most modern and environmentally friendly container terminal along the Gulf of Mexico.

The American port authority Association (AAPA) has warned that because of COVID-19, goods coming from Europe may decline in the coming months. Disruption of supply chain is another problem. Chris Connor Connor, President and chief executive officer of AAPA, said that the impact of this type of crisis on the entire economy can easily reach tens of billions of dollars. He said: "because of the outbreak of coronavirus, the freight volume of many ports in the US in the first quarter of 2020 may be reduced by 20% or more than in 2019."

India Calcutta port (Kolkata) Port) the relevant departments have issued the latest epidemic prevention instructions. All the stops at the last stop are vessels of China, Italy, Iran, Korea, France, Spain, Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait. They must undergo quarantine for 14 days (from the last departure port to calculate) before they can dock with the port of Calcutta. This directive is valid until March 31, 2020 and will be considered later.

The Brisbane Maritime Safety Administration (MSQ), located in the port of Queensland, Australia, has announced that from March 18th onwards, all merchant ships (or ship personnel who have been to other countries within 14 days) in all 14 days will be prohibited from stopping at all ports in Queensland, including Brisbane port. The Shipping Australia attacked the move: the new ruling could create serious supply chain problems for the country.

The measure was originally launched for vessels leaving China a month ago, but with the global spread of the coronavirus, Queensland decided that the two week rule should apply to all ships from abroad. Several transport services to and from Australia take only six to eight days, and ships may have to wait for more than 14 days to enter. The Association recommends that some shipping companies may be forced to ignore port calls or to stop altogether in worst cases in Australia.

The Shipping Australia Ltd (SAL) is also strongly opposed to any 14 day quarantine ban, no matter which port authority has imposed a ban. Australia is the hub of transport in Papua New Guinea. At the same time, New Zealand and Australia have 14 days of exclusion, which means that the trade between the two neighboring countries is now under tremendous pressure. The industry is worried that the 14 day quarantine rule of Queensland Maritime Safety Authority (MSQ) will soon be emulated by other ports, which will affect all over Australia and New Zealand.

The Canary Islands and the Bali islands in Spain have been closed for reasons of the outbreak.

Vietnam's Kampuchea port closed. As Vietnam took measures to control the spread of the new coronavirus, the Vietnamese government announced in March 15th that it would block the Cambodian border crossings and impose a one month ban on entry to all foreign tourists. In March 19th, the Ministry of foreign affairs of Kampuchea sent a letter to the Vietnamese Embassy in Kampuchea, saying it would close the border between the two countries and not allow the two peoples to cross the border. The specific implementation time is 23:59 at 23:59 in the evening. After the Vietnamese government did not notify the Cambodian side of closing the border gate, the government of Kampuchea immediately decided to temporarily close the Cambodian border. However, the ban is not targeted at holders of diplomatic passports.

Hong Sen, the Prime Minister of Kampuchea, regretted the Vietnamese people. He believed that there were few Kampuchea people entering Vietnam and more Vietnamese came to Kampuchea. Prior to this, Hong Sen has banned Italy, Germany, Spain, France and the United States and other 5 countries in Europe and the United States and Iran personnel entry, and now Vietnam has become the seventh country on the ban list.

Vietnam customs closes the border between Cambodia and Vietnam. The driver needs isolation for 14 days to go back to Vietnam. Now all the cabinets are going to West Port, but the bad news is that the freight forwarders have said that West Port has begun to port. In addition, in the face of the complex situation of the epidemic, the Vietnamese government decided to start all the people and foreigners from ASEAN from 0 o'clock in March 18, 2020. The 14 days before the entry into Vietnam, those who have been in ASEAN or those passing by ASEAN countries will be concentrated for 14 days.

Ports in Italy, Denmark and France operate normally.

Land traffic starts to jam

According to the March 18th news, leaders of EU member states have agreed to temporarily close the EU border for 30 days. In addition, in order to prevent the spread of the epidemic, many European countries recently announced that they should tighten border management or implement "city closure" throughout the country, which means that these countries will "seal the country".

Many European countries have emphasized that international freight activities will continue.

As epidemic prevention measures mainly affect passenger transport and part of road transport, although the impact of international freight will continue, land transportation enterprises will be affected greatly. The freeway connected to Germany and Poland has been congested and blocked up to 60 kilometers.

At present, the European countries have all been trapped, and many countries have been blocking the border. The road transport in Europe will be under pressure. This will have a great impact on the European central to Europe, and it will bring great difficulties to the delivery of goods. At present, the border countries in Europe are queuing up: Germany, Poland, Austria Hungary, Belarus and Poland. With the development of the epidemic, there will be more congestion on the border of European countries.

In addition, recently, many countries have been affected by the continued spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and other factors. When a country's currency depreciates sharply, the cost of imports will be raised. Some importers may choose to abandon, reject, delay payment, or even pay in order to avoid losses. Therefore, foreign trade people need to pay close attention to the exchange rate fluctuations in the target export market in order to cope with possible risks.

Russia

The fall in oil prices led to the plunge in the Russian rouble exchange rate. In March 6th, the ruble exchange rate experienced a rare drop in recent years. On the next trading day (9), the ruble continued to depreciate, and the US dollar reached 1:75.04 against the ruble, which was further devalued by 9.5% compared with the 6 day.

In order to reduce the impact of sharp oil shocks on the rouble, the Central Bank of Russia announced in March 9th that as part of the budget requirements, Russia has decided not to buy foreign exchange in the domestic market within 30 days (initially it should have purchased about 3 billion US dollars in March). From 9 to 12, the ruble exchange rate stopped a sharp downward trend and maintained stability in a small concussion.

Russian financial analysts believe that in the next period of time, the ruble exchange rate will be in a small range of shocks.

Malaysia

In March 16th, RGI fell to the lowest level since June 2017, against the US dollar, as at 5 times in the afternoon, 4.3070 to 1 yuan. Kenna's research analysts expect that under the impact of many unfavorable factors, the Jilin dollar exchange rate will continue to linger at the level of 4.30 ringgit to 1 dollars, or even lower.

In addition, the epidemic situation in Malaysia is also noteworthy. In March 17th, 120 new confirmed cases were added in Malaysia, and the number of new confirmed cases was broken up for three consecutive days. The country has issued "restrictions on activities", and public action control will be implemented from 18.

India

In the early March, the rupee plunged into a worst currency in Asia. It fell by about 3.1% in March to the lowest level in more than a year in India.

Iran

The new crown pneumonia epidemic combined with US sanctions made Iran's currency devaluation intensified. Since February, rial has been in the process of devaluation. In early February, the exchange rate was 1 US dollars to 135 thousand rial. In February 22nd, the open market of rial opened a sharp decline, reaching a low level in the past year, closing at a price of 1 US dollars for 153 thousand rial. In March 15th, Iran's rial's unofficial exchange rate against the US dollar also dropped to 15550:1, a 7.7% depreciation compared with the first confirmed case of new crown pneumonia in Iran in February 29th.

South Africa

Affected by the collapse of international crude oil prices, new crown pneumonia and nationwide power rationing, South African currency Rand fell nearly 8% against the US dollar in March 9th, and was once near the 17 Rand mark, the lowest level of Rand's exchange rate against the US dollar since February 2016.

Sarah Hunt, a South African economist, said that because the new crown pneumonia epidemic is far from over, the South African economy will continue to suffer serious shocks in the second quarter. It is difficult to judge the future trend and "inflection point", and the market will continue to fluctuate violently.

Brazil

In March 16th, Real fell below the "5" mark for the first time against the dollar, closing at 5.0467 Real to 1 dollars, and Real losing 4.68%. This month, Real has depreciated by 12.62%. And this year, Real has accumulated depreciation of 25.76%.

Mexico

In March 9th, the US dollar fell to 1 pesos against the peso Mexico exchange rate of 22 pesos, with a daily decline of over 10%, the largest decline since 2008. In the morning of March 16th, Mexico pesos fell to the lowest level in exchange rate against the US dollar and dropped by more than 4.11%. The exchange rate of Mexico pesos for the US dollar was 23.03 pesos to 1 US dollars, which also broke the bottom line of the market psychology of 23 pesos for us $1.

In addition, multinational currencies in Columbia, Chile and Uruguay also suffered a significant depreciation.

Risk prevention advice

In view of the above countries' orders, we recommend foreign trade enterprises:

First, attention should be paid to changes in consumption demand, income reduction, unemployment rate and business failures in the outbreak areas.

2. Pay attention to exchange rate changes in target market.

Pay attention to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. With the US Federal Reserve sharply cutting interest rates by 100 basis points and launching the $700 billion QE plan, the RMB exchange rate is "behind the waves", but it is surging in the dark.

4. Orders placed by buyers in serious epidemic areas must be kept in contact with customers before delivery, and local traffic control should be concerned to prevent customers from taking delivery. Besides, we need to pay attention to the operation of buyers and prevent default risks.

After shipment, pay close attention to the transportation of goods and make sure that you have enough time and pay attention to the additional cost.

New customers and new orders must be more cautious, and CIF and FOB trade terms should be used as far as possible to ensure the safety of the loan.

Buy CITIC insurance when necessary. At present, many policies have been put in place to strengthen export credit insurance support and give certain premium subsidies, and local rules and regulations can be consulted by local rules and regulations.