618 Whether It Can Become The Trend Of China'S Consumption In The Second Half Of The Year Is Worth Looking Forward To.

This year's 618 is doomed to be different from previous years.

In May 25th, Taobao, Jingdong, Suning and other platforms could not wait to release the 618 promotion policy this year. Compared with the complex superposition rules in previous years, this year's promotion of all major electronic business platforms has revealed full sincerity from the bones -- "simplicity".

Judging from the rules, there is neither Taobao nor Tmall building. Jingdong has made the simplest 618 "flag" in history. It promised to "buy expensive and retreat, buy expensive and pay for it". Suning played the slogan of "J-10%" and chose to fight hand to hand with Jingdong in the category of 3C appliances.

In terms of time, this year's 618 is the same as in previous years. It did not really wait until June 18th, but it took half a month ahead of schedule, almost full of June. According to the official calendar released by Tmall, this year 618 will last for 27 days from May 25th to June 20th.

Can 618 of the greatest sincerity in this history become the war of blood consumption in China in the post epidemic era?

01 "618" best scenario for testing consumer confidence

What was lost in February is to be returned in June.

As the first shopping Carnival in the post epidemic period, the 618 responsibility is not simply to make businesses make money.

Keywords: low price

Electricity supplier promotion = discount sales promotion is a direct understanding of consumers' 618, double eleven business holiday.

Despite the recent addition of online and offline integration, Shopping Festival Gala and other gimmicks, but low price is still the most important factor to attract consumers to order.

Discount or subsidy is actually the most common "output" mode of electronic commerce platform. But this year, when brands go to the demand of inventory and the state promotes consumption, their strength is better than before.

From the preferential policies launched by the major platforms, there are fewer fancy math problems and more sincere sincerity. Among them:

Tmall combined with national consumption subsidies, the first to start the entire stadium full 300-40, no need to get coupons, and bring a large number of apple, such as apple, to promote official promotion.

In May 21st, the Jingdong launched a big promotion with Jingxi Road, then Jingdong launched more than 200 million pieces of half off goods, and the joint government issued tens of billions of consumer coupons.

Su Ning is closely watching Jingdong, playing the slogan of J-10%, hand in hand in the category of 3C appliances.

A lot of money will continue to be cheap, and there is no extra price.

Keywords two: live broadcast

The 618 from the traditional 4 big business platform to 4+2 (shaking voice, fast hand), live broadcasting is becoming an important traffic entry, and highly consistent with the mode of time sale.

From the direct seeding camp, apart from professional live broadcast, the president's live + star broadcast has become the 618 biggest attraction.

According to Tmall, Tmall will invite more than 300 entertainment stars and more than 600 brands to visit Taobao during the Tmall 618 period.

The Jingdong, which was allied before the war, was also very quick.

During the 618 period, Jingdong said it would invite more than 100 stars and brand directors to deliver live goods, and also launched live music.

On the eve of the war, the quick hand offered Jay Chou the king of heaven, which was higher than that of Taobao's live star group.

02 Who is the biggest consumer in the first half of the year?

Behind the urgent need of sales promotion, a large number of brand businesses suffering from the impact of the epidemic are eagerly waiting for cash to flow back to the blood.

According to Tmall's public information, this year Tmall 618 will have 100 thousand businesses to participate in this year's big promotion, doubling the number of year-on-year. Among them, beauty, snacks, home appliances, can be called the 618 largest battlefield of the three.

1, beauty makeup.

With the help of net red goods and social grass, word of mouth has become the marketing consensus of cosmetics brands.

According to Euromonitor, in 2018, the electricity supplier channel exceeded the KA channel by 27.4% of the market share, becoming the largest sales channel, with a compound growth rate of 25.6% over the 2013-2018 years, ranking first among all channels.

In 2020, the beauty industry of Tmall continued to maintain high growth. In April, the growth rate rose to 38% again, and the growth rate of domestic brand was significantly higher than that of the international brand.

2, snacks

In recent years, online leisure snack growth has been maintained at over 30%. With the continuous innovation of snack industry and the continuous improvement of consumer's consumption level, snack is no longer just a supplement to three meals. Consumers have given more new meanings and new roles to snacks.

Blind boxes, IP and other new ways to enter the snacks category, businesses through the vibrato, fast short video continuous fermentation, to promote the participation of young groups and complete the conversion of re purchase.

In April 2020, with the deepening of consumption habits and the recovery of logistics after the outbreak, the growth rate of leisure snacks online increased to 53%.

3, 3C appliances

The "618" promotion, as a big promotion festival of traditional 3C appliances, will also become an important node of the major manufacturers in 2020. It is expected that the leading companies will increase sales promotion efforts to further enhance market concentration.

03 Some signs of China's consumption rebound

Prior to the "post epidemic era, the differentiation of consumer industries quietly came to the end of the post epidemic era," the chief relativism of the Guotai Junan consumer group has mentioned that consumer confidence is a key indicator of China's economic recovery in the post epidemic era, and the 618 promotion is a key node to help us identify consumer confidence.

Judging from the available data, we think this starting point is faint.

1, April zero improvement in social data

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in April 2020, the zero growth rate of -7.50% was significantly improved compared to the sharp decline of -15.8%\-29.7% in March, indicating the gradual recovery of consumer confidence.

2, Tmall's pre-sale turnover increased by 515%

In May 25th, Tmall announced the 618 official start of 1 hours of pre-sale data, pre-sale turnover grew 515%. Among them, consumer electronics, home decoration and other industries took the lead in achieving 7 minutes breaking 100 million, beauty makeup 7 minutes over 500 million, small household appliances category grew rapidly, electric steamers increased 100 times, electric pan increased 87 times compared to the same period last year, air frying pot increased 85 times, and air conditioning fans increased 27 times compared with the same period last year.

3, the growth rate of 618 industries over the years is obvious.

During the 618 period of 2019, the scale of the electricity supplier industry increased by 26% compared with the same period last year. The number of daily active users continued to rise from the warm-up period, reaching 520 million at the peak of June 18th, an increase of 18.4% over the same period last year.

The rapid growth of the industry itself, superimposed in 2020, compared with the 2019 promotion efforts to further enhance, for example, Tmall from 300 to 30 yuan, to 300 yuan to reduce 40 yuan, and the epidemic was suppressed consumer demand concentrated release, 2020 618 overall scale growth is expected to increase significantly.

4, residents travel warmer

According to Gao de map data, residents' driving trips have been restored to the level of 95.8% before the Spring Festival, and public transportation has also risen to 50.5%.

Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and other first tier cities as the national transport hub, facing greater prevention and control pressure, the level of recovery is slower than the domestic average level. Other cities such as Shenzhen, Xi'an and Hangzhou have recovered more than 80% of their driving rates.

If the recovery of consumer confidence can be recognized in June, the trend of China's consumption in the second half of the year is expected to be warmer.