2021 Panel Boom: Large Scale Price Rise In The First Quarter, Rapid Increase In OLED Penetration

In the cold winter of January, the rise of panel is still hot.

According to sigmaitell, the average price of 43 inch LCD panel is expected to rise by $3 in January, and the average price of 50 inch and 55 inch LCD panel is expected to rise by $5 in January. Especially for large-scale TV panel, the upstream supply and demand is short, and the downstream demand is strong, and the supply chain is in a tight state.

"The price rise of large-size panel will start from June 2020, and we predict that it will last for 10 months and rise to the first quarter of this year, which is the longest price rise cycle in the past ten years," Li Yaqin, general manager of group intelligence consulting, analyzed to the 21st century economic report. "The increase has also reached the highest in ten years, and the mainstream size increase of TV panel and display panel is basically 50% Some TV specifications exceed 80% and 90%

From the trough in 2019 to the bottom rebound in 2020, the upward curve of panel market has climbed to a new height. At present, the first quarter of 2021 shows that panel prices are still growing strongly. What will happen after that? "The price in the first half of this year is relatively stable, and the relationship between supply and demand is tight. The second half of this year depends on the overall development of the epidemic and its impact on demand," said Li Yaqin This also means that if the global epidemic situation is under control, the supply and demand of the panel in the second half of the year will be relaxed, and there may be room for price correction. If the impact of the epidemic continues, the stable and tight state will continue.

In this context, leading enterprises in the past year mergers and acquisitions, expansion of production capacity, from the third quarter of last year began to warm up. Among them, TCL technology and BOE share prices rose in turn, and continue to plan new production lines. Recently, BOE plans to increase by 20 billion yuan to acquire shares and invest in production lines. Previously, supply chain sources said that TCL technology will invest in it panel and large-size OLED panel production lines in Guangzhou, and the competition of technology and capacity is still going on.

The biggest increase and the longest price rising cycle in ten years

What are the driving factors in the turbulent price rise? From the demand side and the supply side of the specific analysis.

First of all, on the demand side, the global demand of TV market has experienced a very obvious explosive growth since the second half of last year. Zhang Hong, TV research director of group intelligence consulting, told the 21st century economic report: "the driving force of growth is from overseas. In 2020, the global total TV shipment scale reached a new high in the past five years, reaching 247 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, which is 6% higher than that in 2019 Million. In the first quarter of 2021, the demand for panel stock of the world's top ten brands remains strong. However, looking forward to 2021, we expect the global market to see a slight decline in the size of total TV shipments, which is expected to be 3.1%. "

The growth is more violent is the IT panel, under the epidemic situation, the demand for telecommuting and entertainment is surging. For example, according to the data of the group intelligence consulting IT team, in 2020, the global total display market shipment scale will reach nearly 140 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the shipment amount will increase by 13%. It is expected that the shipment scale in 2021 will remain at a high level.

On the supply side, according to the capacity calculation of group intelligence consulting, the actual capacity supply area of LCD TV panel in 2021 will increase by 6% year-on-year. The supply growth in the first quarter is very limited, with the capacity area increasing by 2.5%. From the second quarter, the growth of effective supply area of LCD TV will accelerate.

At the same time, many analysts pointed out to the 21st century economic report that the shortage of production capacity of core components in the upstream of semiconductors will also affect the supply of TV and it panel this year. For example, driver IC and glass substrate are limited by the capacity shortage of 8-inch wafer. In addition, the unexpected power failure of NEG factory will continue in the first quarter.

On the other hand, panel manufacturers are also adjusting the supply ratio of TV panel and it panel, and reducing TV supply has become a trend. "After 2010, with the release of high-generation production capacity of mainland panel factories, it seems that the solution for panel manufacturers to digest production capacity with large-scale is a once and for all solution in the past seven or eight years. However, in the state of demand fluctuation and continuous increase in production capacity in 2020, the panel manufacturers are very determined to make adjustments, not only to solve the problem of profit and digestion capacity by large-scale, but also by 2021 In this regard, mainstream panel manufacturers have chosen to go to TV. Leading enterprises such as BOE and Huaxing are reducing the distribution of TV production capacity. The TV application of global large-scale panel production area will drop to less than 70%, which is a new low in the past few years. " Li Yaqin said.

This also led to further tension between TV supply and demand, and the rise was very rapid. However, Zhang Hong told reporters that according to the forecast, the supply-demand ratio of LCD TV panel Market in 2021 will be 5.3%, and the supply and demand will be relatively balanced. In the first quarter, the price of TV panel will continue to rise, but the price rise of panel will be narrowed from February to March, and downward adjustment is expected in the second half of the year.

Rapid penetration of OLED panels

In addition to the price increase of large-size panel, the situation of small-size mobile phone panel is more subdivided, which needs to be divided according to technical categories. Chen Jun, deputy general manager and chief analyst of Qunzhi consulting, said: "at present, the prices of a-Si and flexible OLEDs are rising steadily, while the prices of LTPS and LCD are in a slight downward trend. The prices of flexible OLEDs are becoming more and more diversified, rather than simply lowering prices."

For OLED, the focus of attention in 2021 is that the speed of OLED loading is obvious, especially in the field of smart phone applications, and OLED capacity will continue to release in 2021. Chen Jun told the 21st century economic report: "in 2020, the domestic shipment of OLED smart phone panels will be about 83 million, and it is estimated that in 2021, the shipment volume of OLED smart phone panels in mainland China will be about 100 million."

From the perspective of global smart phone terminals, "the proportion of flexible OLEDs will expand rapidly, mainly driven by apple. In 2020, the penetration rate of rigid + flexible will be 31%, flexible will account for 16%, and rigidity will account for 15%. In 2021, the overall penetration rate of both will rise to 40%," Chen Jun further said, "the increase of flexible OLED penetration rate will also be driven by the supply side. After 2021, including The production capacity of vicino V3 production line, BOE Mianyang Chongqing line and Tianma flexible OLED production line gradually began to release, and the supply side is also promoting the rapid increase of flexible OLEDs. "

For example, BOE now has four AMOLED production lines. Xinda electronic report shows that Chengdu and Mianyang lines have been completed and are gradually releasing production capacity; Chongqing line is under construction; the other is under planning. The Chongqing line under construction (B12) is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2021 and gradually release its capacity in 2022. At the same time, in 2020, BOE has successfully imported large customers from Europe and the United States, and has started to supply goods in batches.

According to Li Yaqin, large size OLED Growth will accelerate in 2021. On the one hand, as the iteration of LCD technology gradually slows down, terminal brands introduce more OLED product lines in the field of large size, including LG, Sony, Hisense, Xiaomi and Skyworth, which have released a lot of OLED products. During the recent CES (International Consumer Electronics Exhibition), more OLED sizes, high-resolution and High refresh rate, product depth from the original large size gradually to the medium size development.

On the other hand, OLED panels are also extending to it panel products. For example, Samsung actively promotes the penetration of OLED product lines into the high-end market of the pen, while the participation of diversified suppliers and more meta brands will jointly promote the OLED market to accelerate its growth in the next two to three years. "Overall, if it and TV are taken together, the shipment volume of OLED panels will reach nearly 9 million pieces in 2021 In 23 years, it is predicted to be more than 20 million pieces. "

In addition, there are new trends in the large-scale OLED production line. While the production capacity of LGD Guangzhou OLED panel factory under LG is increasing, more brands are stepping into the field of large-scale OLED to break the unique situation of LGD. Previously, Samsung's SDC has announced the construction of OLED production line, which is likely to join the supply in 2021. After TCL technology took a stake in joled last year, it also plans to build large-scale OLED production lines in Guangzhou.