Data Reveals Why 70% Of The Fund Has Lost Money Due To The Doubling Of Fund Growth

The annual report of fund companies is coming.

Under the background of the market going well in 2020, the scale of public funds will refresh its history, reaching nearly 20 trillion yuan.

Some fund companies holding shares in listed companies have also delivered brilliant report cards in the financial reporting season.

For example, according to the annual report of CITIC Securities, the operating income of its holding subsidiary Huaxia Fund in 2020 will reach 5.539 billion yuan, an increase of 39.26% over the same period of last year, and the net profit of 1.598 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.02%.

The background is that in 2020, affected by the unilateral rising market, the growth of fund net value has spawned a large influx of funders, and the scale of public funds has increased significantly.

Fund companies make a lot of money, the net value of the fund increases sharply, investors really make money?

The fund diagnosis function launched by a third-party platform shows the industry pain point of "fund making, investors losing money". Even in double star funds such as Huaxia new energy innovation stock, 70% of the foundation people lose money.

70% of the residents lost money in doubling their base

There has always been a phenomenon that funds make money and investors lose money in the fund industry.

By the end of last year, the non monetary scale of Huaxia Fund was 503.895 billion yuan, ranking third among 143 fund managers in the industry.

Taking Huaxia's funds as an example, the annual return rate of Huaxia new energy innovation stock is as high as 120%, and that of Huaxia energy conservation and environmental protection stock is 114%.

Established in June 2017, Huaxia energy innovation stock fund aims to achieve long-term steady appreciation of fund assets by selecting high-quality enterprises of energy innovation and under the premise of strictly controlling risks. As of December 31, 2020, the scale of the fund is 10.370 billion yuan.

Zheng Zehong, the fund manager, joined Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd. in June 2012. He once managed Huaxia high-end manufacturing flexible allocation fund and Huaxia stable growth hybrid fund, and achieved 38.75% and 74.92% returns respectively during his tenure. At present, he mainly manages Huaxia energy innovation stock fund, and has obtained 128.30% income during his tenure.

The fund has achieved double returns in the past year, with a range return of 116.43%. These data show that the 10 billion fund Huaxia energy innovation stock is one of the excellent funds.

But not many people make money.

According to the data, in the analysis of the profit and loss of the users held by Huaxia energy innovation stock in the past year, 44.1% of the users lost more than 10%, 27.6% of the users lost less than 10%, and 14.1% and 14.2% respectively made less than 10% and more than 10%.

That is to say, although Huaxia energy innovation shares have risen by nearly 116% in the past year, 71.7% of the basic people still lose money.

From the analysis of the behavior characteristics of users who have lost more than 10%, the platform thinks that the main reasons for the loss are giving up fixed investment, chasing up and killing down prices, and frequent trading.

Short holding time and single position also lead to loss.

"This should be the statistics of the third-party platform's own users. These basic people may not enter the market for a long time." According to a person from a fund company in Guangzhou, this data can reflect the profit and loss situation of the foundation people to a certain extent, but in fact, most of these investors enter the market when the fund returns are good. If you include the funders accumulated by the fund since the issuance, the proportion of the foundation people who make profits will be higher than 71.7%.

New citizens enter the arena at a high level

Huaxia energy innovation stock base 70% loss is not an example.

According to the latest annual report released by China Post trend, the profit of the fund will be 711 million yuan in 2020, and the growth rate of net fund share will be 53.11%.

According to the data of the third-party platform, the trend of China Post's flexible configuration mix has increased by 25.24% in the past year. However, in the analysis of the profit and loss of the users who hold their shares in the past year, 47.9% of the users have lost more than 5%, 14.4% of the users have lost less than 5%, and 12.4% and 25.3% of the users have made more than 5% loss in the past year.

After research, there is a clear calculation method between the fund's profit and the foundation people's loss.

Zhang Jimin of fof investment and Financial Engineering Department of Xingzheng Global Fund believes that the difference between "the fund makes money and the foundation people don't make money" is transaction loss, which is equal to the holder's actual rate of return minus the growth rate of net worth. The higher the absolute value of transaction loss, it means that the holders are more likely to buy high and sell low, which will lead to the decline of the overall real investment return rate.

According to Zhang Jimin, the funds with large transaction losses generally have a lower scale at the beginning of the period and a higher scale at the end of the period. It may also indicate that some funds have certain risk-taking behavior when the scale is small, and attract funds to enter higher positions when the performance is better. Such a fund net value performance is often excellent, but behind the holder as a whole, it is difficult to make profits consistent with expectations.

According to the data, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the scale of Huaxia energy innovation stock fund increased from 2.08 billion yuan to 10.37 billion yuan, and a large amount of funds entered the market in the fourth quarter.

Fund industry insiders said that because open-end funds can be purchased and redeemed at any time, if the funders buy at a high level in the market, the fund assets will expand at a high level. When the market is in a shock, the actual loss will be amplified; if the fund is sold at a low level in the market, the fund assets may also shrink at a low level.

According to the data, in the shock market after the year, new energy stocks continued to decline, and the loss of foundation people holding Huaxia energy innovation stock fund in the past year also exceeded 70%.

The fund makes money, so does the foundation people?

There are also products in the market that fund earns and fundamentalists earn.

For example, the fund manager Cai Xiangyang managed Huaxia Changyang three-year fixed opening hybrid achieved 64.41% income in the past year, and Zhang Haijing, the fund manager, managed Huaxia Hengtai 64 month fixed opening bond, achieved 3.68% income in the past year, and the funders holding these two funds made 100% money.

It is not difficult to find that these two funds are regular open-ended funds.

The so-called fixed-term open-end fund is a kind of closed-end fund. Different from the ordinary open-end fund, this kind of fund has a relatively fixed opening time, and the cycle may be one year, eighteen months, three years, etc., which has the characteristics of open-end fund and closed-end fund.

The industry generally believes that long-term can bring better returns to equity funds.

For example, Dongfang hongruifeng, which was issued in September 2014, after experiencing the sharp rise and fall of the stock market in 2015 and 2016, obtained an annualized return of 41.06% when it was officially opened for three years in September 2017.

For investors, it is a win-win thing with fund companies to avoid the operation of chasing up and killing down with system design and realize the value of stocks with a longer period.

However, Wu Xianxing, an analyst at Tianfeng securities, believes that there are not only subjective reasons for investors, but also objective reasons for fund managers and markets. He believes that fund managers are vulnerable to cognitive behavioral bias, and it is difficult to maintain the sustainability of performance regardless of style stability or style rotation investment strategy. Moreover, the A-share market environment is complex, the number of funds has exceeded the number of stocks, and the market style is easy to switch, which brings many difficulties to investors.

Zhang Jimin also believes that we should not pay too much attention to the short-term performance ranking of funds. If you buy a fund because of its good short-term performance, you will sell it because its short-term performance is not so good. If you continue to buy high and sell low, no matter how good the performance of the fund, this operation mode is also difficult to make money. Therefore, the logic of fund investment should be based on more rational and focus on long-term factors instead of short-term uncertain factors.