First Line Property Market Cooling Down Again: Shanghai And Shenzhen Block Speculation, Policy "Mend" Upgrade

The pressure of rising house prices in first tier cities is a lasting topic.

On May 28, the 21st century economic report reporter from the Shanghai real estate trading center to verify that Shanghai issued the latest regulations on the number of units to be purchased: from now on, the house property certificate has been obtained, the online signature has been put on record, and the first-hand shortlisted to obtain the subscription qualification. When the buyer inquires about the number of real estate units under his name, they are all identified as the number of purchase units.

The strict implementation of the purchase restriction policy in Shanghai is to stop the investment behavior of buying a new house and buying a second-hand house in the centralized supply of new houses.

Shanghai is not alone. Previously, on May 20, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued the notice of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development on further standardizing the sales price guidance of newly built commercial housing and business apartments, prohibiting real estate projects from raising prices by borrowing decoration, pushing sales in batches and not increasing prices.

Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, believes that Shanghai is cracking down on the loopholes in the housing inspection system to bypass the purchase restriction policy and continue to plug the loopholes; Shenzhen is to curb real estate enterprises through fine decoration, cover the plate, reluctant to raise prices.

Since March, the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other first tier cities has experienced a round of intensive tightening of regulation and control, and the property market policies in some cities have been continuously increased. The first tier cities block the real estate speculation funds to cool down the property market.

According to the housing price data of 100 cities, in addition to Shanghai, the house prices of first tier cities showed a rising trend on a month on month and year-on-year basis. In April, the average price of house prices in Guangzhou increased by 32% year on year; The average price of house prices in Shenzhen rose 19% year on year. In fact, the property market has cooled to a certain extent. After the new policy of April 21 in Guangzhou, the turnover of first-hand houses dropped sharply, and Shenzhen also faced the situation of second-hand house prices. Recently, due to the concentration of new housing supply in Shanghai, the turnover in the short term is indeed declining. In addition, the recent new supply is mainly distributed in the suburbs, which makes the average price of house price drop justifiable. Data show that the average price of Shanghai house prices in a month fell 2% month on month, down about 16% year-on-year.

Multi pronged approach, only to eliminate the fire in the property market

In contrast, the real estate market in various regions has been advancing steadily. However, the change in the mode of land supply, which is most concerned by the industry this year, has an unpredictable impact on the market. For the first time, many first tier cities and strong second tier cities have concentrated on land supply, and real estate enterprises have actively signed up and competed actively, leading to the price capping of many plots. In the face of the first centralized land supply coming next month, Shanghai is also making great efforts to strictly implement the regulation and control policy from the demand side, and chase and intercept the real estate speculation funds, so as to cool the market. At the same time, it also strictly implements the policy of "no land acquisition in Shanghai for three years" of illegal real estate enterprises. Multi pronged approach, only to eliminate the false fire in the property market.

Not only first tier cities, but also strong second tier cities have joined the ranks of intensive regulation and control. On May 28, Chengdu announced that with the approval of the leading group for stable and healthy development of the real estate market in Chengdu, a mechanism for issuing the transaction reference price of second-hand housing was established. At the same time, the reference price of second-hand housing transaction in some residential quarters was released, involving five districts of the main city, high-tech zone and Tianfu new area. On May 31, Suzhou is about to usher in the first centralized land supply of the year. Recently, in order to maintain the stable and healthy development of the land market, Suzhou Municipal Bureau of land and resources restricted seriously dishonest enterprises from participating in the activities of listing and bidding for the use right of state-owned construction land; Developers who participate in the auction are prohibited from taking part in the land auction. Those who violate the regulations will be included in the "blacklist" and will be banned from entering the Suzhou land market for three years.

In January 2021, the year-on-year increase in prices of 100 cities will be expanded. In January, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities was 15853 yuan / m2, up 0.37% month on month and 3.56% on a year-on-year basis. The increase was 0.12% and 0.10% higher than that of the previous month. The average price of second-hand housing in Baicheng was 15542 yuan / m2, up 0.32% month on month and 3.22% year-on-year. The increase was 0.04% and 0.24% higher than that of last month. According to the housing price data of 70 cities in April released by the National Bureau of statistics. In April, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in the whole country remained rising, with a slight increase. Among them, Beijing's second-hand housing prices rose both month on month and year-on-year. Among them, the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in Beijing increased by 0.6% month on month and 4.5% year on year; Beijing's second-hand housing sales prices rose 1.2% month on month, up 10.1% year-on-year. In the four first tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the second-hand housing prices of other new houses showed a month on month and year-on-year increase except Shenzhen.

The rising pressure of housing prices in the first tier cities has released to the surrounding cities such as Shanghai and huanshen, and the price of new residential buildings ranks first among the 100 cities. Ningbo's house price rose to the ninth place in China.

For example, in the second half of 2020, the cumulative transaction area of new commercial residential buildings (excluding affordable housing) in Shanghai exceeded 5.7 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 40%, and many projects were sold out at the beginning of the market; Affected by the price limit, the newly-built houses in Shenzhen form a price scissors gap with the second-hand houses. The market purchasing power is focused on the new housing market, and the net red disk sunlight has become a common phenomenon.

The first tier cities block the real estate speculation funds to cool down the property market. Photo by Zheng dikun

Increasing regulation intensity: local governments interview real estate enterprises

According to a research report of the China Central Index Institute, the regulation of the property market in many hot cities is mainly due to the warming of the property market in many places since the second half of last year. The regulation and control of the property market in multiple cities reflects that "housing and housing are not fried" and the implementation of urban policies is still the main keynote of real estate market regulation. Local governments will adjust and follow up the policies in a timely manner according to the changes of market situation while maintaining the continuity and stability of the regulatory policies.

According to the statistics of the Central Plains real estate market research department, the real estate regulation has exceeded 30 times in mid early May, adding 186 times from January to April before, and 215 times in 2021.

Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Zhongyuan Real estate market in Shanghai, said that the launch of new houses in Shanghai adopts the mode of centralized listing. Because it is a new thing, it is inevitable that the rules are not fully considered. In the process of implementation, new problems and blind spots that have not been paid attention to before will also be exposed, In the follow-up call process, there will be constantly upgrading the short board and improving the market trading order. The purpose is still one, adhere to "housing does not speculation", plug loopholes, maintain the order of trading and market expectations of stability.

Lu Wenxi predicted that in the future, Shanghai would continue to launch new measures to regulate the trading order of the market and stabilize the market expectations.

According to statistics, about 1 / 3 of Shanghai's new property market triggered the scoring system, which indicates that the high temperature of the property market has subsided a little, but it is still at a high level.

With the acceleration of market changes, regulation and control has become more intensive, and local governments have more and more interviews with real estate enterprises.

On May 28, 21st century economic reporter learned from several core sources that on May 27, Nanjing interviewed relevant internal experts of five brand real estate enterprises, including Nanjing Vanke, Nanjing yanheng, Yincheng, Nanjing Xuhui, and Hangzhou Binjiang. The main contents of the meeting included: soliciting opinions on the guiding prices of building interior materials and labor force; On the mode of land transfer; In order to limit the direction of competitive quality housing prices to solicit the opinions of developers.

On the evening of May 28, Nanjing housing security and real estate bureau issued the notice on further optimizing the purchase of houses for families without houses, which reiterated the recognition criteria for "families without houses": from May 29, 2021, the qualification of "families without houses" shall not only meet the requirements of the city's household status and no self owned housing in the whole city, Two new conditions have been added: no registration information and transaction records of self owned housing in two years, continuous payment of urban social insurance or personal income tax for 12 months in Nanjing in the previous year. If you can't provide social security or personal income tax certificate, you must have been registered in Nanjing for 5 years. In addition, students' collective households are no longer identified as "houseless families".

In February this year, Shanghai introduced the new house lottery scoring system, giving priority to families without houses; Later, some projects "pick customers" and Shanghai also timely interviewed relevant real estate enterprises.

Policy remedy has become the normal regulation of local government. For example, there was no specific policy in Hangzhou for purchasing second set of housing after high-level talents settled in Hangzhou. On April 13, it was reiterated that families with high-level talents can only buy a second set of housing after they have settled in Hangzhou for five years.

According to the 21st century economic report, Hangzhou is preparing new housing rules recently, which may refer to Shanghai's scoring system, but the details need to be announced by the official authority. Some people in Hangzhou have confirmed that Hangzhou has a batch of red plate pre-sale certificates ready to be issued recently, which may be due to the introduction of new regulatory policies.

Lin Zhong, chairman of Xuhui Holding Co., Ltd., pointed out that it has become normal for local governments to interview developers. The government has done some research in advance to pave the way for the follow-up policies. Real estate enterprises are also willing to make suggestions to build a fair and healthy market environment.

Lin Zhong, who once served as vice president of China Real Estate Association, recently advised relevant departments to solve the problem of property quality decline after land price and price restriction by "limiting house price, land price and competitive quality".

In mid April, Hangzhou first raised the "competitive quality" of local auction. The reporter of the 21st century economic report has learned exclusively that Beijing may adopt this new local photographing rule in some areas and plots before Hangzhou.