Global Economic Recovery, Domestic Textile Industry Or Slight Recovery

< p > in the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of China's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile > /a > industry showed a marked decline.

Among them, the textile and apparel industry showed the most obvious performance. The growth rate of industrial added value dropped from two digits in the beginning to 4.7% in September, and the cumulative growth rate from 1 to September was only 44.1% of the same period last year.

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< p > with the recovery of the international economy and the stabilization and recovery of the domestic economy, the production of the textile industry is expected to improve in 2013.

Sai Di think tank textile industry situation analysis group recently predicted that, considering the decline in the growth rate of new projects this year, the recovery will not be too obvious, the growth rate is expected to be around 11% in 2013.

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< p > despite the slight rise in production growth, China's textile industry may have structural contrasts next year.

According to the prediction of the above research group, in all industries, the growth rate of textile industry's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com > clothing > /a > clothing industry will be the most obvious, and it is expected to reach 7%.

The difference is that the chemical fiber manufacturing industry and the textile industry will give priority to the digestion of inventories, and the annual production growth will not increase significantly.

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< p > < strong > textile industry domestic demand market is expected to warm up next year < /strong > < /p >

< p > in the first three quarters of 2012, the growth of domestic demand in the textile industry showed a marked decline due to the downward pressure on the whole macro-economy and the serious decline in international demand.

In 1-9, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 17.8% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 6.9 percentage points over the same period last year.

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At the same time, the investment growth rate of the textile industry has also declined significantly. < p >

From 1 to September, the average annual growth rate of fixed assets investment in the three industries of textile industry was only 19.6%. The proportion of fixed assets investment in the whole manufacturing industry also decreased from 6.9% at the beginning of the year to 6.1%.

Compared with the same period last year, the average growth rate of fixed assets investment in the three sectors of the textile industry dropped by 19.9 percentage points.

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< p > however, the domestic demand market of textile industry is expected to pick up next year as the effect of expanding domestic demand policy continues to emerge.

"In 2013, the growth rate of domestic demand in China's textile industry is expected to rise, and the growth of domestic demand will gradually shift from policy oriented to market driven."

Sai Di think tank textile industry situation analysis group said.

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< p > since August this year, the state has promulgated the State Council's opinions on deepening the reform of the circulation system and accelerating the development of the circulation industry, some opinions on promoting the steady growth of foreign trade, and the stimulating measures to expand and expand the camp.

In particular, the State Council's opinions on deepening the reform of the circulation system and accelerating the development of the circulation industry will gradually solve the problem of "heavy production and light circulation" that has existed for a long time in our country, and inject new impetus to the development of the circulation enterprises and drive the growth of consumption demand.

In addition, the overall low inflation situation is expected to further spawn the policy of expanding domestic demand.

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< p > the above research group expects that in 2013, the speed limit of clothing, shoes and hats and needles and textiles of Enterprises above Designated Size (a), href= //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp and retail sales will reach 20%.

The growth rate of fixed assets investment in textile and clothing industry will be the most obvious, and the annual growth rate is expected to reach 30%.

In addition, the textile industry will further accelerate the shift to the central and western regions.

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< p > < strong > four problems deserve attention: < /strong > < /p >

< p > China's textile and clothing products have always been the main target of Global trade protection and the key object of import and export restrictions in Europe and America.

Affected by the economic downturn, such trade remedy in European and American countries has been escalating.

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< p > data show that in the first half of this year, there were 14 cases of trade remedy for textile and clothing products in China, an increase of 55.6% over the same period last year.

The EU's non food products rapid warning system has issued 122 reports on China's export of textiles and clothing products, an increase of 121.82% over the same period last year.

The US Consumer Product Safety Commission has also issued 11 briefings on China's export of textiles and clothing products.

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< p > in addition, in the first half of this year, the United States also issued nearly 20 recall reports on China's exports of textile and clothing products.

India, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and other emerging economies also frequently launched trade remedy measures for China's textile and clothing products.

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"P >" Sai Di think tank "textile industry situation analysis and Research Group expects that in 2013, technical barriers to trade such as standard certification and trade defense measures will continue to refurbish, and the risks faced by textile and garment export enterprises may escalate.

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< p > besides the upgrading of trade protection, the market of raw materials such as cotton and crude oil is shaking, and the appreciation of RMB has intensified. The rising cost pressure of enterprises has also become a challenge for China's textile industry in the future.

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< p > taking cost pressure as an example, due to the continuous and rapid rise of cost, the loss of textile and garment enterprises with small and medium-sized enterprises as the main body is aggravated.

Data show that in the first half of this year, the total profit of textile enterprises above Designated Size dropped by 1.9% over the same period last year.

The loss of enterprises reached 18.4%, and the deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 124.1% over the same period last year.

In various industries, cotton spinning and chemical fiber are affected by the price fluctuation of raw materials, and the profits of the industries are all showing a negative growth trend.

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< p > "2013, the cost pressure will continue, and the survival pressure of textile enterprises can hardly be alleviated."

Sai Di think tank textile industry situation analysis group said that the future labor market is still under pressure, and the cost of labor in textile enterprises will continue to rise. Domestic cotton's acquisition and importation of cotton will continue to operate at a high level, and there will be limited room for price differentials at home and abroad. Quantitative easing policy in Europe and the United States will push up import prices of raw materials, especially chemical fibers, and increase import cost pressure.

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< p > the research group recommends that we strengthen the monitoring and early warning of industrial operation, continue to promote structural tax reduction, strengthen export support, and actively guide enterprises to digest their own costs.

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